Michigan 2020 General Election Turnout - Analysis and Prediction from the State Voterfile

Context Model-based Predictions 5.9 million, are you serious? Why might it be wrong? Data will be updated on gitlab What can we learn? Demographic and turnout trends continue toward a more purple state Not a younger electorate, but different, and in ways that hurts Trump. Current predictions by Congressional District and County Congressional District County Where does this prediction come from? An explanation and disclaimer Model specifics Subsampling and prediction generation Summary numbers (Updated October 27) [Read More]