The 2022 Michigan Electorate - An Analysis (and Prediction) from the State Voterfile

- Headline numbers What can we learn about Michigan’s electorate? The continued purpling of Michigan’s electorate The Turnout Gap Among Congressional Districts Michigan voters will be older, but the youth vote is showing staying power Expected County Turnout Context and background: the Michigan Qualified Voter File (QVF) and voter registration laws Prediction track record How these predictions are made Model specifics Subsampling and prediction generation Corwin D. [Read More]

Registration Based Sampling for Future Elections- Michigan 2020

- Motivation and Goal The Problem: About 9-12% of voters in past Michigan elections were late registrants, voters who registered within a year of that election. This portion of the electorate is currently either not registered in Michigan or registered at an alternate address. The Need: A representative registration-based sample of the expected electorate in Michigan’s 2020 November election using voter file information that is from September 2019. The Hope: That there are predictive characteristics of late registration and turnout that allow us to oversample from currently registered voters so that they can approximate the profile that characterizes our expectations of these future late registrants. [Read More]