The 2022 Michigan Electorate - An Analysis (and Prediction) from the State Voterfile

- Headline numbers What can we learn about Michigan’s electorate? The continued purpling of Michigan’s electorate The Turnout Gap Among Congressional Districts Michigan voters will be older, but the youth vote is showing staying power Expected County Turnout Context and background: the Michigan Qualified Voter File (QVF) and voter registration laws Prediction track record How these predictions are made Model specifics Subsampling and prediction generation Corwin D. [Read More]

Michigan 2020 General Election Turnout - Analysis and Prediction from the State Voterfile

Context Model-based Predictions 5.9 million, are you serious? Why might it be wrong? Data will be updated on gitlab What can we learn? Demographic and turnout trends continue toward a more purple state Not a younger electorate, but different, and in ways that hurts Trump. Current predictions by Congressional District and County Congressional District County Where does this prediction come from? An explanation and disclaimer Model specifics Subsampling and prediction generation Summary numbers (Updated October 27) [Read More]

Let's define a better bellwether - with a focus on Michigan

A county worth chronicling? Rethinking Bellwethers In search of two key qualities Volatile counties as bellwethers Indicative counties as bellwethers Combining these two qualities: the Swing Multiplier Defining the Swing Multiplier Swing Multiplier results Crowning Michigan’s bellwether counties 1st Cass 2nd Wexford 3rd Luce Not Washtenaw! General thoughts Coda: Michigan demographics don’t have a clear destiny. Summary: Data-driven discussion and identification of what should be Michigan’s bellwether counties point to a consistent set of counties that exhibit sizable changes each election that are also accurate reflections of statewide trends. [Read More]

Registration Based Sampling for Future Elections- Michigan 2020

- Motivation and Goal The Problem: About 9-12% of voters in past Michigan elections were late registrants, voters who registered within a year of that election. This portion of the electorate is currently either not registered in Michigan or registered at an alternate address. The Need: A representative registration-based sample of the expected electorate in Michigan’s 2020 November election using voter file information that is from September 2019. The Hope: That there are predictive characteristics of late registration and turnout that allow us to oversample from currently registered voters so that they can approximate the profile that characterizes our expectations of these future late registrants. [Read More]